What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Gun / Violence” next time?

30%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Gun / Violence”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Gun / Violence” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Gun / Violence” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 15:21 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Gun / Violence

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…the executive director of Southside United [HFDC-Los Sures and] The Wick [Against Violence], Juan Ramos. We have the founder of Grow Up, Grow Out Junior,…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…as an incredibly painful reminder of all that still has to be done to root out the scourge of gun violence from across our city.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…and his 5-year-old child in broad daylight during school hours, where ICE agents were dressed up as construction workers wearing vests and carrying long guns.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Holds Press Conference on Ice Shooting in Marble Hill · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…whether their civil liberties will be respected, whether law and order is supposed to look like a man carrying a long gun, wearing a mask.