What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “MSG / Garden” next time?

20%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “MSG / Garden”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “MSG / Garden” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “MSG / Garden” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 20% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

20%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
Streak: not said the last 4 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 11:46 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

MSG / Garden

Probability: 20% · n=4
Settled: 0/4 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…And Bushwick Starr can spend less time on agency self-registration and more acting and writing with the men and women of Palmetto Garden Senior Club.