What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Debate” next time?

44%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Debate”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Debate” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Debate” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 6, 2025.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 20:08 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Debate

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…there was a woman who stopped the governor and congratulated her on a great performance. So, I think that's the general feedback on the debate.