What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Subway / Bus” next time?

48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Subway / Bus”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Subway / Bus” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Subway / Bus” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 4, 2026.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 19:38 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Subway / Bus

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 6 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…tackle the cause of violence at its root. On street corners and bus stops, on park benches and at bodega counters, mediating conflicts before they…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…Yorker deserves to be safe on every single train, on every single subway platform, no matter where they're going across our five boroughs. And we…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…more effectively, that will help predict traffic patterns and ensure that our buses can run faster, and that will help us engineer the materials needed…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…October of 1904, New Yorkers took the very first ride on a subway, sitting in awe as they shot underground across our city. In 1969,…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Holds Press Conference on Ice Shooting in Marble Hill · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…here. This is a residential neighborhood. We are right here by a subway, and the pretext of ICE is, in their words, to keep this…