What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Policy / Budget” next time?

31%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Policy / Budget”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Policy / Budget” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Policy / Budget” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 8, 2026.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 07:30 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Policy / Budget

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Juan RamosotherMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…the work that remains. An investment today does not erase decades of policies, practices and approaches that have too often left our communities feeling unheard,…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

And then the budget will be a time when we can explore all of the different ways to get to that end goal. But for…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…in polls. I'm not surprised to see that he doesn't have much policy. And I'm not surprised to see that he couldn't answer a question…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…more than a year to access funds that they've already been promised, all while they are already struggling to make ends meet on razor-thin budgets.