Will Sean Duffy say “China / Chinese”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Sean Duffy said “China / Chinese” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 17, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Aug 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sean Duffy
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 37% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | No |
| May 19, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 17, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Sean Duffy say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Sean Duffy said “China / Chinese” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 17, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Sean Duffy says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sean Duffy: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/sean-duffy/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sean-duffy&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sean-duffy&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP