Will Sean Duffy say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Sean Duffy did not say “Iran / Iranian” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Aug 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sean Duffy
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 28% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | No |
| May 19, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Sean Duffy say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Sean Duffy did not say “Iran / Iranian” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Sean Duffy says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sean Duffy: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/sean-duffy/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sean-duffy&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sean-duffy&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP