Sean Duffy: Hearing, May 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Sean Duffy say during the Department of Transportation Budget hearing?
Markets
14 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ATC / Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Road Trip | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| EV / Electric Vehicle | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Spirit | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26MAY21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP