Will Sean Duffy say “Trump” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Sean Duffy said “Trump” 3+ times at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Aug 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sean Duffy
Trump (3+ times)
- Probability
- 31% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 21 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| May 21, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 19, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Sean Duffy say “Trump (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Sean Duffy said “Trump” 3+ times at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 19, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Sean Duffy says “Trump (3+ times)” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sean Duffy: ‘Trump (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/sean-duffy/words/trump-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sean-duffy&word=trump%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sean-duffy&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP