Will Sean Duffy say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Sean Duffy said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on May 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Aug 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sean Duffy
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 64% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | Yes |
| May 19, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Sean Duffy say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Sean Duffy said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on May 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Sean Duffy says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sean Duffy: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/sean-duffy/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sean-duffy&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sean-duffy&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP