Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Press conference, Jul 21, 2026
Kalshi What will RFK or Dr. Oz say during their Fraud News Conference?
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | Yes | 70%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| California | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chronic | No | 70%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Cyclospora / Cyclosporiasis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hospice | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Processed Food | No | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUL21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP