Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Remarks, Apr 2, 2026
Kalshi What will RFK say during his announcement on Microplastics?
Markets
13 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Endocrine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Toxic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obese / Obesity | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Forever Chemical | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Processed Food | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP