Will Mike Johnson say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Mike Johnson said “Iran / Iranian” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Oct 26, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Johnson
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 60% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes |
| May 17, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Mike Johnson say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Mike Johnson said “Iran / Iranian” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Johnson says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Johnson: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-johnson/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-johnson&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-johnson&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP