Mike Johnson: Interview, Mar 26, 2026

Thu, Mar 26InterviewHistory onlyMike Johnson

Updated

Markets

12 words · 9 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
ICE / DHS Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Illegal Alien Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Democrat 3+ timesYes–new new word, no probability yet–
Hormuz Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Midterm Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Oil Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Save Act / Save America Act Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
TSA Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Big Beautiful Bill Yes–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Afford / Affordable / Affordability No–new new word, no probability yet–
AI / Artificial Intelligence No–new new word, no probability yet–
Trump 3+ timesNo–new new word, no probability yet–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXJOHNSONMENTION-26MAR26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP