Mike Johnson: Speech, Sep 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Mike Johnson say during RNC Midterm Convention?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election / Midterm | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax Cut / Cut Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SAVE America Act / SAVE Act | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Talarico | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Schumer | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXJOHNSONMENTION-26SEP10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP