Mike Johnson: Speech, Jan 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Mike Johnson say during his address to the UK Parliament?
Markets
13 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Churchill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| England / English | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO / Ally | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starmer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trade | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| King / Queen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mayflower | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXJOHNSONMENTION-26JAN21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP