Will Mike Johnson say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Mike Johnson said “ICE / National Guard” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 2, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Oct 26, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Feb 1, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Johnson
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Mike Johnson say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Mike Johnson said “ICE / National Guard” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Johnson says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Johnson: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-johnson/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-johnson&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-johnson&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP