Will John Thune say “Illegal Alien”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, John Thune did not say “Illegal Alien” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
40%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
John Thune
Illegal Alien
- Probability
- 40% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for John Thune yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Illegal Alien |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does John Thune say “Illegal Alien”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, John Thune did not say “Illegal Alien” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2026.
- What is the probability John Thune says “Illegal Alien” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “John Thune: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/john-thune/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=john-thune&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=john-thune&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP