John Thune: Interview, Mar 17, 2026

Tue, Mar 17InterviewHistory onlyJohn Thune

Updated

Markets

11 words · 6 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Filibuster Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Fraud Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
ID / Identification Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Iran Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Oil Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Schumer Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Cheat / Cheating No–new new word, no probability yet–
Illegal Alien No–new new word, no probability yet–
Kristi / Noem No–new new word, no probability yet–
Trump 3+ timesNo–new new word, no probability yet–
Woman No–new new word, no probability yet–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-THUN26MAR17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP