Will John Thune say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, John Thune said “Iran” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
55%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
John Thune
Iran
- Probability
- 55% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for John Thune yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does John Thune say “Iran”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, John Thune said “Iran” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026.
- What is the probability John Thune says “Iran” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “John Thune: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/john-thune/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=john-thune&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=john-thune&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP