Will “Placebo” be said on TBPN next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Placebo” was said on TBPN in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 23, 2026.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
TBPN
Placebo
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
…other people will have it. And we don't know whether these are placebo or not. We can't make a definitive statement. And we don't have…
…that previously failed. Anyway, my view is we don't know whether it's placebo or not yet. That is true and some people will say it's…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Placebo |  Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
Questions
- How often is “Placebo” said on TBPN?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Placebo” was said on TBPN in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 23, 2026.
- What is the probability “Placebo” is said on TBPN next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “TBPN: ‘Placebo’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/tbpn/words/placebo (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tbpn&word=placebo · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tbpn&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP