Will “OpenAI / ChatGPT” be said on TBPN next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “OpenAI / ChatGPT” was said on TBPN in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 10, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
TBPN
OpenAI / ChatGPT
- Probability
- 43% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 11 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Brown of Anthropic with us, you know, Santosh of Meta, Sachin of OpenAI, you know you know, Germany at AT and T. Yeah. G two…
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | OpenAI / ChatGPT |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | OpenAI / ChatGPT | Kalshi | No | 3 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often is “OpenAI / ChatGPT” said on TBPN?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “OpenAI / ChatGPT” was said on TBPN in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 10, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 23, 2026.
- What is the probability “OpenAI / ChatGPT” is said on TBPN next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “TBPN: ‘OpenAI / ChatGPT’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/tbpn/words/chatgpt-or-openai (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tbpn&word=chatgpt%20%2F%20openai · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tbpn&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP