Will “Santa / Elf” be said on All-In Podcast next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Santa / Elf” was said on All-In Podcast in 1 of 3 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 12, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 26, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 11, 2026 – Oct 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
All-In Podcast
Santa / Elf
- Probability
- 43% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 4 episodes
- said in 0 of 4
Next listing counts: anyone
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2025 | Santa / Elf |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Santa / Elf | Polymarket | No |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Santa/Elf | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often is “Santa / Elf” said on All-In Podcast?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Santa / Elf” was said on All-In Podcast in 1 of 3 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 12, 2025 (33%), most recently on Dec 26, 2025.
- What is the probability “Santa / Elf” is said on All-In Podcast next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “All-In Podcast: ‘Santa / Elf’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/all-in-podcast/words/elf-or-santa (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=all-in-podcast&word=elf%20%2F%20santa · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=all-in-podcast&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP