All-In Podcast: Episode, Dec 12, 2025
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast?
Markets
18 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill / Clinton | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Censorship | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Christmas Party | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Polymarket | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Student Debt | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tech/Bro | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 5.2 / GPT-5.2 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Code Red | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Disgraziad | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe/Rogan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palantir | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Santa/Elf | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-392 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP