What is the probability “Blockade” is said on World News Tonight next time?

33%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Blockade” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Blockade” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Blockade” was not said on World News Tonight in any of the 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 12, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 23, 2026) is not counted.

33%from settlement history only · n=4counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
Streak: not said the last 4 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 02:27 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Blockade

Probability: 33% · n=4
Settled: 0/4 (0%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 16, 2026 · Oct 16, 2026 · 15:42In transcript

…aircraft carrier near the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon saying the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil being enforced by this strike group is crippling Iran's…

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 15, 2026 · Oct 15, 2026 · 11:47In transcript

…watch. This strike group plays a vital role here, enforcing the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil coming out of the strait and helping escort non-Iranian…