The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 64 word markets on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon since 2025, on 61 different words.
History Wall
1–40 of 61, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Nov 20 ’25episode | Dec 18episode | Dec 19episode | Jan 14 ’26episode | Jan 16episode | Jan 20episode | Jan 21latest | Last 7 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks | Not listed: Knicks, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Knicks, Dec 18 episode | Settled yes: Knicks, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Knicks, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Knicks, Jan 16 episode | Settled no: Knicks, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Knicks, Jan 21 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 34%n=2 from settlement history |
| Rap / Rapper / Rapping | Not listed: Rap / Rapper / Rapping, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Settled no: Rap / Rapper / Rapping, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Rap / Rapper / Rapping, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Rap / Rapper / Rapping, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Rap / Rapper / Rapping, Jan 16 episode | Settled no: Rap / Rapper / Rapping, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Rap / Rapper / Rapping, Jan 21 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 24%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Trump, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Trump, Dec 19 episode | Settled no: Trump, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Trump, Jan 16 episode | Settled no: Trump, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Trump, Jan 21 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 24%n=2 from settlement history |
| Album | Not listed: Album, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Album, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Album, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Album, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Album, Jan 16 episode | Settled yes: Album, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Album, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bob Dylan | Not listed: Bob Dylan, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Bob Dylan, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Bob Dylan, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Bob Dylan, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Bob Dylan, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Bob Dylan, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Bob Dylan, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Boston | Not listed: Boston, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Boston, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Boston, Dec 19 episode | Settled yes: Boston, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Boston, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Boston, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Boston, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cop | Not listed: Cop, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Cop, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Cop, Dec 19 episode | Settled yes: Cop, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Cop, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Cop, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Cop, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| New York / Harlem | Not listed: New York / Harlem, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: New York / Harlem, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: New York / Harlem, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: New York / Harlem, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: New York / Harlem, Jan 16 episode | Settled yes: New York / Harlem, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: New York / Harlem, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Odyssey / Odysseus / Homer | Not listed: Odyssey / Odysseus / Homer, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Odyssey / Odysseus / Homer, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Odyssey / Odysseus / Homer, Dec 19 episode | Settled yes: Odyssey / Odysseus / Homer, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Odyssey / Odysseus / Homer, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Odyssey / Odysseus / Homer, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Odyssey / Odysseus / Homer, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Jada | Not listed: Jada, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Jada, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Jada, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Jada, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Jada, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Jada, Jan 20 episode | Settled yes: Jada, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| New York / Knicks | Not listed: New York / Knicks, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Settled yes: New York / Knicks, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: New York / Knicks, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: New York / Knicks, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: New York / Knicks, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: New York / Knicks, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: New York / Knicks, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Marty | Not listed: Marty, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Marty, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Marty, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Marty, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Marty, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Marty, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Marty, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Miami | Not listed: Miami, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Miami, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Miami, Dec 19 episode | Settled yes: Miami, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Miami, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Miami, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Miami, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Netflix | Not listed: Netflix, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Netflix, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Netflix, Dec 19 episode | Settled yes: Netflix, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Netflix, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Netflix, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Netflix, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Olympic / Olympics / Olympian | Not listed: Olympic / Olympics / Olympian, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Olympic / Olympics / Olympian, Dec 18 episode | Settled yes: Olympic / Olympics / Olympian, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Olympic / Olympics / Olympian, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Olympic / Olympics / Olympian, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Olympic / Olympics / Olympian, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Olympic / Olympics / Olympian, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pole to Pole | Not listed: Pole to Pole, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Pole to Pole, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Pole to Pole, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Pole to Pole, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Pole to Pole, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Pole to Pole, Jan 20 episode | Settled yes: Pole to Pole, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Premiere | Settled yes: Premiere, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Premiere, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Premiere, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Premiere, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Premiere, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Premiere, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Premiere, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Rihanna | Not listed: Rihanna, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Rihanna, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Rihanna, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Rihanna, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Rihanna, Jan 16 episode | Settled yes: Rihanna, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Rihanna, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Robot / Robotics | Not listed: Robot / Robotics, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Robot / Robotics, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Robot / Robotics, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Robot / Robotics, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Settled yes: Robot / Robotics, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Robot / Robotics, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Robot / Robotics, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Sing / Singing | Settled yes: Sing / Singing, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Sing / Singing, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Sing / Singing, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Sing / Singing, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Sing / Singing, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Sing / Singing, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Sing / Singing, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Syracuse | Not listed: Syracuse, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Syracuse, Dec 18 episode | Settled yes: Syracuse, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Syracuse, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Syracuse, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Syracuse, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Syracuse, Jan 21 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Adam Sandler | Not listed: Adam Sandler, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Settled no: Adam Sandler, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Adam Sandler, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Adam Sandler, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Adam Sandler, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Adam Sandler, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Adam Sandler, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AMD | Not listed: AMD, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: AMD, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: AMD, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: AMD, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Settled no: AMD, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: AMD, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: AMD, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ariana / Grande | Settled no: Ariana / Grande, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Ariana / Grande, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Ariana / Grande, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Ariana / Grande, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Ariana / Grande, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Ariana / Grande, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Ariana / Grande, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Audition | Settled no: Audition, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Audition, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Audition, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Audition, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Audition, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Audition, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Audition, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Badminton | Not listed: Badminton, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Badminton, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Badminton, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Badminton, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Settled no: Badminton, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Badminton, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Badminton, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gluten / Bread | Not listed: Gluten / Bread, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Gluten / Bread, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Gluten / Bread, Dec 19 episode | Settled no: Gluten / Bread, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Gluten / Bread, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Gluten / Bread, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Gluten / Bread, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Canada / Canadian | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Settled no: Canada / Canadian, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Las Vegas / CES | Not listed: Las Vegas / CES, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Las Vegas / CES, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Las Vegas / CES, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Las Vegas / CES, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Settled no: Las Vegas / CES, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Las Vegas / CES, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Las Vegas / CES, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Chanel | Not listed: Chanel, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Chanel, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Chanel, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Chanel, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Chanel, Jan 16 episode | Settled no: Chanel, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Chanel, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Chris Rock | Not listed: Chris Rock, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Chris Rock, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Chris Rock, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Chris Rock, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Chris Rock, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Chris Rock, Jan 20 episode | Settled no: Chris Rock, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Christmas | Not listed: Christmas, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Christmas, Dec 18 episode | Settled no: Christmas, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Christmas, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Christmas, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Christmas, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Christmas, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Christopher Nolan | Not listed: Christopher Nolan, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Christopher Nolan, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Christopher Nolan, Dec 19 episode | Settled no: Christopher Nolan, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Christopher Nolan, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Christopher Nolan, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Christopher Nolan, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Color Purple | Settled no: Color Purple, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Color Purple, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Color Purple, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Color Purple, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Color Purple, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Color Purple, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Color Purple, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Costume | Settled no: Costume, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Costume, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Costume, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Costume, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Costume, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Costume, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Costume, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Disney / Disney+ / Hulu | Not listed: Disney / Disney+ / Hulu, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Disney / Disney+ / Hulu, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Disney / Disney+ / Hulu, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Disney / Disney+ / Hulu, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Disney / Disney+ / Hulu, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Disney / Disney+ / Hulu, Jan 20 episode | Settled no: Disney / Disney+ / Hulu, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Don't Be Dumb | Not listed: Don't Be Dumb, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: Don't Be Dumb, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Don't Be Dumb, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Don't Be Dumb, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Don't Be Dumb, Jan 16 episode | Settled no: Don't Be Dumb, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Don't Be Dumb, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Dune | Not listed: Dune, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Settled no: Dune, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: Dune, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: Dune, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: Dune, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: Dune, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: Dune, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| EGOT | Settled no: EGOT, Nov 20 ’25 episode | Not listed: EGOT, Dec 18 episode | Not listed: EGOT, Dec 19 episode | Not listed: EGOT, Jan 14 ’26 episode | Not listed: EGOT, Jan 16 episode | Not listed: EGOT, Jan 20 episode | Not listed: EGOT, Jan 21 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 7Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Will Smith say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? | no transcript | 7 | 2 yes · 5 no | – |
| Jan 20, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will A$AP Rocky say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? | no transcript | 9 | 3 yes · 6 no | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Linus Sebastian say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? | no transcript | 9 | 1 yes · 8 no | – |
| Jan 14, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Ben Affleck or Matt Damon say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? | no transcript | 9 | 5 yes · 4 no | – |
| Dec 19, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Carmelo Anthony say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? | no transcript | 10 | 3 yes · 7 no | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Timothée Chalamet say during The Tonight Show? | no transcript | 10 | 3 yes · 7 no | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Cynthia Erivo say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? | no transcript | 10 | 2 yes · 8 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/the-tonight-show-starring-jimmy-fallon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/the-tonight-show-starring-jimmy-fallon · words: /api/v1/history?entity=the-tonight-show-starring-jimmy-fallon · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP