The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon: Episode, Dec 18…
Kalshi What will Timothée Chalamet say during The Tonight Show?
Markets
10 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Dylan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marty | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York / Knicks | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Adam Sandler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dune | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| EsDeeKid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kylie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| London / Paris | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ping Pong | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rap / Rapper / Rapping | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLATENIGHTMENTION-25DEC18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP