Shopify (SHOP)
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 32 word markets on Shopify’s earnings calls since 2026, on 16 different words. Next call: Nov 3, 2026 (13 words listed).
Next: Earnings call ·
13 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi| Word | Q3’24Nov '24 | Q4’24Feb '25 | Q1’25May '25 | Q2’25Aug '25 | Q3’25year ago | Q4’25Feb '26 | Q1’26May '26 | Q2’26last call | Trend | Last 8 | Scripted | All-time | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Service | 4 times: Service, Q3’24 Nov '24, counts as said | 2 times: Service, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 2 times: Service, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 5 times: Service, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 2 times: Service, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 10 times: Service, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 10 times: Service, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 3 times: Service, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | rising | 8/8100% | 7/888% | 35/4283% | 93%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 82¢ Kalshi |
| Acquired / Acquisition | 0 times: Acquired / Acquisition, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 8 times: Acquired / Acquisition, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 7 times: Acquired / Acquisition, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 1 time: Acquired / Acquisition, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 6 times: Acquired / Acquisition, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 6 times: Acquired / Acquisition, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 4 times: Acquired / Acquisition, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 1 time: Acquired / Acquisition, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | steady | 7/888% | 6/875% | 35/4283% | 89%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 82¢ Kalshi |
| OpenAI | 0 times: OpenAI, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 1 time: OpenAI, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 1 time: OpenAI, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 0 times: OpenAI, Q2’25 Aug '25 | 3 times: OpenAI, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 1 time: OpenAI, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 1 time: OpenAI, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 1 time: OpenAI, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | rising | 6/875% | 1/812% | 6/4214% | 76%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Headwind | 3 times: Headwind, Q3’24 Nov '24, counts as said | 3 times: Headwind, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 6 times: Headwind, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 1 time: Headwind, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 5 times: Headwind, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 2 times: Headwind, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 2 times: Headwind, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 0 times: Headwind, Q2’26 Aug '26 | falling | 7/888% | 7/888% | 24/4257% | 67%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Meta | 0 times: Meta, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 1 time: Meta, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 0 times: Meta, Q1’25 May '25 | 1 time: Meta, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 0 times: Meta, Q3’25 Nov '25 | 0 times: Meta, Q4’25 Feb '26 | 3 times: Meta, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 1 time: Meta, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | rising | 4/850% | 4/850% | 9/4221% | 63%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 81¢ Kalshi |
| Tariff | 0 times: Tariff, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 3 times: Tariff, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 9 times: Tariff, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 3 times: Tariff, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 8 times: Tariff, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 1 time: Tariff, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 0 times: Tariff, Q1’26 May '26 | 0 times: Tariff, Q2’26 Aug '26 | falling | 5/862% | 4/850% | 5/4212% | 57%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 57¢ Kalshi |
| Automation | 9 times: Automation, Q3’24 Nov '24, counts as said | 1 time: Automation, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 0 times: Automation, Q1’25 May '25 | 0 times: Automation, Q2’25 Aug '25 | 2 times: Automation, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 2 times: Automation, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 1 time: Automation, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 0 times: Automation, Q2’26 Aug '26 | falling | 5/862% | 5/862% | 19/4245% | 46%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 48¢ Kalshi |
| Microsoft2+ times | 1 time: Microsoft (2+ times), Q3’24 Nov '24, below the threshold | 0 times: Microsoft (2+ times), Q4’24 Feb '25 | 0 times: Microsoft (2+ times), Q1’25 May '25 | 3 times: Microsoft (2+ times), Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 3 times: Microsoft (2+ times), Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 2 times: Microsoft (2+ times), Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 5 times: Microsoft (2+ times), Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 1 time: Microsoft (2+ times), Q2’26 Aug '26, below the threshold | rising | 4/850% | 3/838% | 5/4212% | 42%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 56¢ Kalshi |
| Amazon | 0 times: Amazon, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 0 times: Amazon, Q4’24 Feb '25 | 1 time: Amazon, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 1 time: Amazon, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 1 time: Amazon, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 0 times: Amazon, Q4’25 Feb '26 | 2 times: Amazon, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 0 times: Amazon, Q2’26 Aug '26 | rising | 4/850% | 3/838% | 20/4248% | 40%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Stablecoin | 0 times: Stablecoin, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 0 times: Stablecoin, Q4’24 Feb '25 | 0 times: Stablecoin, Q1’25 May '25 | 2 times: Stablecoin, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 0 times: Stablecoin, Q3’25 Nov '25 | 1 time: Stablecoin, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 1 time: Stablecoin, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 0 times: Stablecoin, Q2’26 Aug '26 | rising | 3/838% | 2/825% | 3/427% | 30%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 46¢ Kalshi |
| Klarna | 0 times: Klarna, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 2 times: Klarna, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 1 time: Klarna, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 1 time: Klarna, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 2 times: Klarna, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 0 times: Klarna, Q4’25 Feb '26 | 0 times: Klarna, Q1’26 May '26 | 0 times: Klarna, Q2’26 Aug '26 | falling | 4/850% | 4/850% | 4/4210% | 28%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 32¢ Kalshi |
| Shopify Capital | 0 times: Shopify Capital, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 0 times: Shopify Capital, Q4’24 Feb '25 | 0 times: Shopify Capital, Q1’25 May '25 | 1 time: Shopify Capital, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 1 time: Shopify Capital, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 1 time: Shopify Capital, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 0 times: Shopify Capital, Q1’26 May '26 | 0 times: Shopify Capital, Q2’26 Aug '26 | steady | 3/838% | 3/838% | 32/4276% | 27%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | 45¢ Kalshi |
| Buyback / Buy Backnever said | 0 times: Buyback / Buy Back, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 0 times: Buyback / Buy Back, Q4’24 Feb '25 | 0 times: Buyback / Buy Back, Q1’25 May '25 | 0 times: Buyback / Buy Back, Q2’25 Aug '25 | 0 times: Buyback / Buy Back, Q3’25 Nov '25 | 0 times: Buyback / Buy Back, Q4’25 Feb '26 | 0 times: Buyback / Buy Back, Q1’26 May '26 | 0 times: Buyback / Buy Back, Q2’26 Aug '26 | steady | 0/80% | 0/80% | 0/420% | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | 14¢ Kalshi |
- times said on that call
- counted as said (ring)
- no call
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Trend
- how the count moved over these calls
- Scripted
- calls of the last 8 where it was said in the prepared remarks
- All-time
- every call on file
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 22, 2026 23:15 UTC.
Every word
1–4 of 4, most settled first| Word | Q3’24Nov '24 | Q4’24Feb '25 | Q1’25May '25 | Q2’25Aug '25 | Q3’25Nov '25 | Q4’25Feb '26 | Q1’26May '26 | Q2’26last call | Trend | Last 8 | Scripted | All-time | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shop Pay | 6 times: Shop Pay, Q3’24 Nov '24, counts as said | 19 times: Shop Pay, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 4 times: Shop Pay, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 11 times: Shop Pay, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 9 times: Shop Pay, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 8 times: Shop Pay, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 4 times: Shop Pay, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 13 times: Shop Pay, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | steady | 8/8100% | 8/8100% | 25/4260% | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Repurchase / Buyback | 0 times: Repurchase / Buyback, Q3’24 Nov '24 | 0 times: Repurchase / Buyback, Q4’24 Feb '25 | 0 times: Repurchase / Buyback, Q1’25 May '25 | 0 times: Repurchase / Buyback, Q2’25 Aug '25 | 0 times: Repurchase / Buyback, Q3’25 Nov '25 | 1 time: Repurchase / Buyback, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 1 time: Repurchase / Buyback, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 0 times: Repurchase / Buyback, Q2’26 Aug '26 | rising | 2/825% | 1/812% | 4/4210% | 32%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Offline | 8 times: Offline, Q3’24 Nov '24, counts as said | 14 times: Offline, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 10 times: Offline, Q1’25 May '25, counts as said | 8 times: Offline, Q2’25 Aug '25, counts as said | 6 times: Offline, Q3’25 Nov '25, counts as said | 4 times: Offline, Q4’25 Feb '26, counts as said | 3 times: Offline, Q1’26 May '26, counts as said | 4 times: Offline, Q2’26 Aug '26, counts as said | falling | 8/8100% | 8/8100% | 29/4269% | 90%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
| Black Friday | 1 time: Black Friday, Q3’24 Nov '24, counts as said | 1 time: Black Friday, Q4’24 Feb '25, counts as said | 0 times: Black Friday, Q1’25 May '25 | 0 times: Black Friday, Q2’25 Aug '25 | 0 times: Black Friday, Q3’25 Nov '25 | 0 times: Black Friday, Q4’25 Feb '26 | 0 times: Black Friday, Q1’26 May '26 | 0 times: Black Friday, Q2’26 Aug '26 | falling | 2/825% | 2/825% | 20/4248% | 18%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts |
- times said on that call
- counted as said (ring)
- no call
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Trend
- how the count moved over these calls
- Scripted
- calls of the last 8 where it was said in the prepared remarks
- All-time
- every call on file
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 32 of 32 settled words resolved (100.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Earnings call FY26 Q2 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 14 | 5 yes · 9 no | 14/14 (100%) |
| May 5, 2026 | Earnings call FY26 Q1 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 10 | 7 yes · 3 no | 10/10 (100%) |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Earnings call FY25 Q4 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 8 | 5 yes · 3 no | 8/8 (100%) |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Earnings call FY25 Q3 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Earnings call FY25 Q2 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
| May 8, 2025 | Earnings call FY25 Q1 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Earnings call FY24 Q4 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
| Nov 12, 2024 | Earnings call FY24 Q3 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Earnings call FY24 Q2 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
| May 8, 2024 | Earnings call FY24 Q1 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
| Feb 13, 2024 | Earnings call FY23 Q4 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
| Nov 2, 2023 | Earnings call FY23 Q3 | Speaker-labelled transcript | 0 | – | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Shopify (SHOP): earnings call word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/SHOP (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/shopify · words: /api/v1/history?entity=shopify · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP