Will Shopify say “Black Friday”?
Shopify did not say “Black Friday” on its Aug 5, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 25, 2026, Shopify did not say “Black Friday” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 18% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Shopify
Black Friday
- Probability
- 18% · n=1
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last calls
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…to 24% compared to last year, which includes our merchants' most successful Black Friday, Cyber Monday selling period ever, generating $11.5 billion in GMV. What's…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…of the year as it includes the key holiday selling period, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday. We expect Q4 to see a similar season…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Black Friday |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How many times did Shopify say “Black Friday” on its last earnings call?
- Shopify did not say “Black Friday” on its Aug 5, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 2 of its last 8 calls: 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 times.
- How often does Shopify say “Black Friday”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Shopify did not say “Black Friday” on the only call with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Shopify says “Black Friday” next time?
- 18%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Shopify: ‘Black Friday’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/SHOP/words/black-friday (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=shopify&word=black%20friday · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=shopify&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP