Will Shopify say “Headwind”?
Shopify did not say “Headwind” on its Aug 5, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 7 of its last 8 calls: 3, 3, 6, 1, 5, 2, 2, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Shopify said “Headwind” on 1 of 2 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=2, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 47¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Shopify
Headwind
- Probability
- 67% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last calls
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…today, and continued Shop Pay momentum. Near term, Europe will be a headwind to global payments penetration metrics given the recent launches of payments in…
…rollout of three-month trials in our largest markets in Q1 2025. That headwind is behind us. Plus MRR represented 35% of MRR for the quarter,…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…reminder, our year-over-year growth rate in MRR will continue to have comparability headwinds until Q2 of this year as our rollout of 3-month trials, particularly…
…behind us, we have largely moved past the more temporary year-over-year comparability headwinds in our gross profit, like the changes in paid trials. Operating expenses…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
5 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…plans, which represented 35% of MRR for the quarter. We had 2 headwinds impacting our year-over-year growth rates in MRR. MRR for Q3 last year…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How many times did Shopify say “Headwind” on its last earnings call?
- Shopify did not say “Headwind” on its Aug 5, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 7 of its last 8 calls: 3, 3, 6, 1, 5, 2, 2, 0 times.
- How often does Shopify say “Headwind”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Shopify said “Headwind” on 1 of 2 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Shopify says “Headwind” next time?
- 67%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Shopify: ‘Headwind’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/SHOP/words/headwind (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=shopify&word=headwind · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=shopify&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP