Will Shopify say “Tariff”?
Shopify did not say “Tariff” on its Aug 5, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 5 of its last 8 calls: 0, 3, 9, 3, 8, 1, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Shopify said “Tariff” on 1 of 3 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (33%), most recently on Feb 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=3, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 57¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Shopify
Tariff
- Probability
- 57% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last calls
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…positioned to seize this opportunity. In 2025, our merchants faced daunting challenges, tariffs, the removal of de minimis exemptions, trade wars and the ever-changing geopolitical…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
8 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 6 in Q&A).
…some of the items that I've discussed the past 2 quarters regarding tariffs and where we are or are not seeing an impact on our…
…merchants have in the aggregate raise their prices some since the April tariff announcements in the U.S., but the level of pricing increases is, in…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
3 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…And importantly, we had factored into our guidance some potential impact from tariffs, which did not materialize. Looking at the 2 components of revenue. Merchant…
…for the years ahead. Now shifting to the broader macroeconomic environment and tariff implications before discussing our Q3 outlook. Through Q2 and into early August,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How many times did Shopify say “Tariff” on its last earnings call?
- Shopify did not say “Tariff” on its Aug 5, 2026 call (FY26 Q2); it said it on 5 of its last 8 calls: 0, 3, 9, 3, 8, 1, 0, 0 times.
- How often does Shopify say “Tariff”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Shopify said “Tariff” on 1 of 3 calls with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 11, 2026 (33%), most recently on Feb 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Shopify says “Tariff” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “Shopify: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/SHOP/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=shopify&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=shopify&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP