All-In Podcast: Episode, Mar 13, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 13)
Markets
24 words · 17 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Polymarket | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anthropic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Barrel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Compute | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| David / Sacks | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sam / Altman | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strait of Hormuz / Hormuz Strait | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palantir | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tesla | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Microsoft | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dumb | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-march-13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP