The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Mar 9, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Rachel Maddow Show
Markets
16 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / DHS | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congress / Congressional | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Leader | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protest / Protester | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Yes | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-MADD26MAR09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP