Will “First Amendment” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “First Amendment” was not said on The Last Word in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 14, 2026.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
First Amendment
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | First Amendment |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “First Amendment” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “First Amendment” was not said on The Last Word in the only episode with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “First Amendment” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘First Amendment’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/first-amendment (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=first%20amendment · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP