Kamala Harris: Episode, Sep 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Kamala Harris say during the Rachel Maddow Show?
Polymarket What will Kamala Harris say on the Rachel Maddow Show on September 22?
Markets
39 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 Days | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Campaign | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Book | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| California | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Attorney General | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Education | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fight 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fight | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Doug | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful Bill | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chicago | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fundamental | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe / Biden 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | 28%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Future | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaza | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD / Vance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Political Violence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unite / Unity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 2028 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto | No | 16%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Charlie | open | – | 50¢ Polymarket |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXKAMALAMENTION-25SEP22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP