Kathy Hochul: Remarks, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her Car Insurance Affordability Proposal?
Markets
10 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billion | Yes | 78%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Premium | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud / Scam | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Register / Registration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Technology | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Buffalo | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26FEB04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP