Kathy Hochul: Remarks, Apr 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her public safety announcement?
Markets
13 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance | Yes | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | 71%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 71%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | Yes | 63%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Buffalo | Yes | 60%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 55%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| 3D | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 37%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 31%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | No | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26APR20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP