# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · keynote 2025-12-07 · 12 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-25DEC07 · as_of 2026-10-26T15:53:13Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-07 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-25DEC07 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of 2025 Reagan National Defense Forum, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
DEI	dei	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Golden Dome	golden dome	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Recruit / Recruitment	recruit|recruitment	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.39	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	yes
Autonomous	autonomous	1	0	0	n	0.31	hist	no
China	china	1	0	0	n	0.31	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	0	0	n	0.31	hist	no
Russia	russia	1	0	0	n	0.31	hist	yes
Trump	trump	0	0			0.37	prior	yes
Woke	woke	0	0			0.37	prior	yes