# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-03-18 · 16 words · K k:KXENTMENTION-CONT26MAR18 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:00:21Z
# scope K contestants_ex_host · n/y settled before 2026-03-18 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXENTMENTION-CONT26MAR18 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating contestant says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 4, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Bond / Bonded / Bonding	bond|bonded|bonding	1	1	1	Y	0.49	yes
Loyal / Loyalty	loyal|loyalty	1	1	1	Y	0.49	yes
Ocean	ocean	1	1	1	Y	0.49	no
Relationship	relationship	1	1	1	Y	0.49	yes
Shelter	shelter	1	1	1	Y	0.49	yes
Strategy / Strategic	strategic|strategy	1	1	1	Y	0.49	yes
Threat	threat	1	1	1	Y	0.49	yes
Target	target	13	4	0.31	nYnnnYnnYY	0.45	yes
Alliance	alliance	16	3	0.19	nnnnnYnnnY	0.33	yes
Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal	betray|betrayal|betrayed	1	0	0	n	0.27	no
Big Move	big move	1	0	0	n	0.27	no
Blood / Bloody	blood|bloody	1	0	0	n	0.27	yes
Clue	clue	1	0	0	n	0.27	yes
Drama	drama	1	0	0	n	0.27	no
Million	million	1	0	0	n	0.27	no
Snake	snake	3	0	0	nnn	0.22	no