Congressional hearings, Mar 24, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Arctic Frost hearing?
Markets
16 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accountable / Accountability | Yes | 80%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional | Yes | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – | |
| Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kash / Patel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FBI | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Turning Point | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| January 6 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Whistleblower | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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