# Joe Biden (joe-biden) · speech 2025-04-15 · 26 words · K k:KXBIDENMENTION-25APR15 · as_of 2026-10-26T22:55:28Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-04-15 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXBIDENMENTION-25APR15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Joe Biden says {word} as part of his ACRD Speech on Apr 15, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Democracy	democracy	3	3	1	YYY	0.5	hist	no
Dictator	dictator	1	1	1	Y	0.39	hist	no
Hunter / Biden	biden|hunter	0	0			0.29	hist	yes
Kamala / Harris	harris|kamala	1	0	0	n	0.28	hist	no
Malarkey	malarkey	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.26	hist	no
Felon	felon	1	0	0	n	0.26	hist	no
Trump	trump	2	0	0	nn	0.24	hist	no
Jill	jill	4	0	0	nnnn	0.21	hist	no
Abortion	abortion	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Budget	budget	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Chips	chip	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Egg	egg	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Immigration	immigration	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Law	law	0	0			0.31	prior	yes
Layoff	layoff	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Medicare	medicare	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Putin	putin	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Recession	recession	0	0			0.31	prior	yes
Reproductive Rights	reproductive right	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Tariff	tariff	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Tax	tax	0	0			0.31	prior	yes
Trudeau	trudeau	0	0			0.31	prior	no
University	university	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Vote	vote	0	0			0.31	prior	no