NYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026
In the week ending Oct 18, 2026, 12 of the 15 words Polymarket listed appeared in front-page headlines; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 15- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 73%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 67%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Justice / Judge | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Execution | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Brazil | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Climate | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Art | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Life | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plant | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woman | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 50%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Prize | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nidal / Hasan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Japan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPrint page (OCR) · The New York Times, front page (print) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
0 matches for “AI / Intelligence”.
Where the listed words were said
Trump’s Unpopularity Digs Hole for Party
Even Bananas Absorb Blows Of War in Iran
Many Migrant Children Are Left to Answer Judges Alone
Public Divided on Executions
Meta Accused of Bias in Brazil
The Private Eye Alleged to Hack Climate Efforts
Her Side of the Story Inuit Identity Fuels Art
A New Kind of Battlefield: Life in Kyiv
MUSK’S SPENDING ON THE MIDTERMS HITS $366 MILLION
Rejuvenating Nuclear Plants
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nyt-front-page:2026-10-18:front_page · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nyt-front-page:2026-10-18:front_page · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP