TSMC (TSM): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 15, 2026
On its Oct 15, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), TSMC said 11 of the 15 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 13 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 15- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 48 | 48 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Quarter 15+ times | Yes | 34 | 34 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 24 | 24 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Margin | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Growth 5+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Agentic | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Arizona | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Taiwan 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Foundry | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shortage | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nanometer | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Data Center 5+ times | No | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| A12 / A13 | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Memory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Samsung | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
8 matches for “Outlook”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between $52.3 billion and $54.3 billion, which represents a 14% sequential…
…Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our third quarter with a revenue of $46.7 billion, higher…
…in U.S. dollar term. Next, let me talk about the AI-related demand outlook. The AI market continues to be very strong. Recent developments are very…
…I think she is asking how do we see the AI demand outlook. The AI demand, as C.C. said, seems to be very strong, but…
…how do we view the adoption of High NA, which we said we will in 2030, and then her question is on profitability, long-term outlook.
Where the listed words were said
…the continued robust multi-year demand from our customers, including the emerging agentic AI market, we reiterate our full year 2026 capital budget to be between…
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host…
…primarily due to the increase in wafer shipment. Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the third quarter, we generated about TWD 920 billion in cash…
…to $46.7 billion, above the high end of our third-quarter guidance. Gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points sequentially to 66.4%, primarily due to margin…
…three years as we continue to invest heavily to support our customers' growth. Additionally, while the tool supply is tight, we always collaborate closely with…
In addition, the emergence of agentic AI CPUs and the continued demand for networking chips are driving further silicon demand. Therefore, semiconductor will remain essential…
We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will also continue to work closely…
…in progress. We are building 13 leading-edge and advanced packaging fab in Taiwan over the next several years, and another five to six fabs overseas.…
…TSMC. Next, let me talk about TSMC's capacity expansion strategy. As a foundry, our first responsibility is to provide our customer with the best technologies…
…and Jeff. My first question, again, on capacity addition. Looks like the shortage. Just wanted to hear, C.C., your view on this. I think it's…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tsmc:2026-10-15:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tsmc:2026-10-15:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP