Will TSMC say “Shortage”?
TSMC said “Shortage” 2 times on its Oct 15, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 4 of its last 8 calls: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 5, 2 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, TSMC said “Shortage” on the only call with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 75% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
TSMC
Shortage
- Probability
- 75% · n=1
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…and Jeff. My first question, again, on capacity addition. Looks like the shortage. Just wanted to hear, C.C., your view on this. I think it's…
…the front end and back end. Definitely, we have a little bit shortage on the back end, and we would like to work with our…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
5 counted (5 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…you see right now? That's one. Second, chips obviously is the current shortage, but there is also a lot of discussion about data center delay,…
…say that since our capacity in the back end is so in shortage mode, the gap is bigger. I welcome that the competitor offers some…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…U.S. and in Taiwan. Can you talk more about this trend? And what's the scale of the labor shortage of foundry engineers at the moment?
Not counted under the usual rule (company speakers + operator); this word was not listed here.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Shortage |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How many times did TSMC say “Shortage” on its last earnings call?
- TSMC said “Shortage” 2 times on its Oct 15, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 4 of its last 8 calls: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 5, 2 times.
- How often does TSMC say “Shortage”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, TSMC said “Shortage” on the only call with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability TSMC says “Shortage” next time?
- 75%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “TSMC: ‘Shortage’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSM/words/shortage (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tsmc&word=shortage · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tsmc&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP