TSMC (TSM): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 15, 2026
On its Oct 15, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), TSMC said 11 of the 15 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 13 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 15- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 48 | 48 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Quarter 15+ times | Yes | 34 | 34 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 24 | 24 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Margin | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Growth 5+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Agentic | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Arizona | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Taiwan 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Foundry | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shortage | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nanometer | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Data Center 5+ times | No | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| A12 / A13 | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Memory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Samsung | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
9 matches for “N2”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…several years, and another five to six fabs overseas. Our new node, N2, has already entered high-volume manufacturing in the fourth quarter of 2025 with…
…smartphone and HPC AI applications. We are also leveraging our manufacturing excellence to generate more N2 wafer output, further increasing our capacity support to customers.
…time that C.C. mentioned about A14 could be a bigger node than N2. May I know whether that assume the big IDM company will outsource…
…then, our prior comment of A14 being a larger, bigger node than N2 has even been, does this include the server CPU from this IDM…
…customer actually higher than the 2 nm activities so far. We expect that the A14 will be a bigger node than our current N2 technologies.
Where the listed words were said
…the continued robust multi-year demand from our customers, including the emerging agentic AI market, we reiterate our full year 2026 capital budget to be between…
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host…
…primarily due to the increase in wafer shipment. Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the third quarter, we generated about TWD 920 billion in cash…
…to $46.7 billion, above the high end of our third-quarter guidance. Gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points sequentially to 66.4%, primarily due to margin…
…three years as we continue to invest heavily to support our customers' growth. Additionally, while the tool supply is tight, we always collaborate closely with…
…outlook. We observe increasing AI demand fueled by the rising adoption of agentic AI as we transition from chatbot to AI assistance. In addition, we…
We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will also continue to work closely…
…support the robust multi-year pipeline or demand for 3 nm technologies. In Taiwan, volume production for our new 3 nm fab in Tainan Science Park…
…TSMC. Next, let me talk about TSMC's capacity expansion strategy. As a foundry, our first responsibility is to provide our customer with the best technologies…
…and Jeff. My first question, again, on capacity addition. Looks like the shortage. Just wanted to hear, C.C., your view on this. I think it's…
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