TSMC (TSM): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 15, 2026
On its Oct 15, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), TSMC said 11 of the 15 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 13 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 15- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 48 | 48 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Quarter 15+ times | Yes | 34 | 34 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 24 | 24 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Margin | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Growth 5+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Agentic | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Arizona | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Taiwan 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Foundry | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shortage | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nanometer | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Data Center 5+ times | No | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| A12 / A13 | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Memory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Samsung | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
19 matches for “Margin”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…to $46.7 billion, above the high end of our third-quarter guidance. Gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points sequentially to 66.4%, primarily due to margin…
…the exchange rate assumption of one U.S. dollar to TWD 31.8, gross margin is expected to be between 65% and 67%, operating margin between 56.5%…
…quarter of 2026 profitability. Compared to second quarter, our third quarter gross margin decreased by 130 basis points sequentially to 66.4%, primarily due to the…
…overall larger scale and cost improvement efforts, we now expect the gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of our overseas fabs to be closer to…
…are also getting much higher, so how should we think about the pricing power and also the long-term gross margin and the capital efficiency return?
Where the listed words were said
…the continued robust multi-year demand from our customers, including the emerging agentic AI market, we reiterate our full year 2026 capital budget to be between…
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host…
…primarily due to the increase in wafer shipment. Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the third quarter, we generated about TWD 920 billion in cash…
…will be much higher than today. You are talking about the gross margin or the profitability can be increased or not. Let me say that,…
…three years as we continue to invest heavily to support our customers' growth. Additionally, while the tool supply is tight, we always collaborate closely with…
…outlook. We observe increasing AI demand fueled by the rising adoption of agentic AI as we transition from chatbot to AI assistance. In addition, we…
We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will also continue to work closely…
…in progress. We are building 13 leading-edge and advanced packaging fab in Taiwan over the next several years, and another five to six fabs overseas.…
…TSMC. Next, let me talk about TSMC's capacity expansion strategy. As a foundry, our first responsibility is to provide our customer with the best technologies…
…and Jeff. My first question, again, on capacity addition. Looks like the shortage. Just wanted to hear, C.C., your view on this. I think it's…
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