TSMC (TSM): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 15, 2026
On its Oct 15, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), TSMC said 11 of the 15 words Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 13 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 15- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 48 | 48 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Quarter 15+ times | Yes | 34 | 34 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 24 | 24 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Margin | Yes | 19 | 19 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Growth 5+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Agentic | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 70%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Arizona | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Taiwan 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 81%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Foundry | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shortage | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nanometer | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Data Center 5+ times | No | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| A12 / A13 | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Memory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Samsung | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Agentic”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Given the continued robust multi-year demand from our customers, including the emerging agentic AI market, we reiterate our full year 2026 capital budget to be…
…outlook. We observe increasing AI demand fueled by the rising adoption of agentic AI as we transition from chatbot to AI assistance. In addition, we…
In addition, the emergence of agentic AI CPUs and the continued demand for networking chips are driving further silicon demand. Therefore, semiconductor will remain essential…
…the prepared remarks that the AI accelerator chipset demand is proliferating into agentic AI demand, including CPUs and networking switches. We understand the overall AI…
…me to make a comment. Although we did see the demand from agentic AI CPUs continue to increase. Yes, that is a trend today. Other…
Where the listed words were said
…and customer trust, we are well-positioned to capture the full multi-year structural AI-related demand. Therefore, all the AI players are working with TSMC. Next, let…
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations and your host…
…primarily due to the increase in wafer shipment. Regarding cash flow and CapEx, during the third quarter, we generated about TWD 920 billion in cash…
…to $46.7 billion, above the high end of our third-quarter guidance. Gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points sequentially to 66.4%, primarily due to margin…
…three years as we continue to invest heavily to support our customers' growth. Additionally, while the tool supply is tight, we always collaborate closely with…
Yeah. Thanks. Yes. So just recall the previous discussion on the agentic AI demand on the CPU. So I wonder, according to our previous framework,…
We will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will also continue to work closely…
…in progress. We are building 13 leading-edge and advanced packaging fab in Taiwan over the next several years, and another five to six fabs overseas.…
…color into how are you thinking through these strategic decisions in terms of procuring from some of the specialty foundries versus providing in-house. Thank you.
…and Jeff. My first question, again, on capacity addition. Looks like the shortage. Just wanted to hear, C.C., your view on this. I think it's…
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