What is the probability Tesla says “2028” next time?

74%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: company speakers.

Will Tesla say “2028”?

Name: Tesla: “2028” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Tesla said “2028” 4 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 1 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4 times. As of Oct 23, 2026, Tesla said “2028” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 74% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.

74%from settlement history blended with transcripts · n=1counts: company speakers

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: company speakers

Updated Oct 23, 2026, 23:20 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Tesla

2028

Probability: 74% · n=1
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last calls: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: company speakers

FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 21, 2026 · said 4 times (counts)

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Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)

4 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 3 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.

Elon Muskcompanyprepared · 8:57Hear it 8:51 In transcript

…be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028. As I've said publicly on X, the Terafab I think will be…

Elon Muskcompanyqa · 45:37Hear it 45:31 In transcript

…going to be less than tens of billions in capital equipment up through early 2028. Then it'll probably be north of $100 billion long term.

Every match in the transcript

FY26 Q2 earnings call, Jul 22, 2026 · not said

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FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 22, 2026 · not said

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FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 28, 2026 · not said

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FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 22, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q2 earnings call, Jul 23, 2025 · not said

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FY25 Q1 earnings call, Apr 22, 2025 · not said

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FY24 Q4 earnings call, Jan 29, 2025 · not said

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Oct 15, 2026	2028	Kalshi	Yes	1

Questions

How many times did Tesla say “2028” on its last earnings call?: Tesla said “2028” 4 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on 1 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4 times.
How often does Tesla say “2028”?: As of Oct 23, 2026, Tesla said “2028” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 15, 2026.
What is the probability Tesla says “2028” next time?: 74%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: company speakers.

Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘2028’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/2028 (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=2028 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP