Micron (MU): FY26 Q4 earnings call, Sep 30, 2026
On its Sep 30, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q4), Micron said 12 of the 26 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 24 of 26 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 24 of 26- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer 25+ times | Yes | 18 | 18 | ✗ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shipment | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| HBM4E | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Agentic | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| GPU / CPU | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 73%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | 41%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Data Center 5+ times | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| PC | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Idaho | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 82%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Smartphone | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 20+ times | No | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Data Center 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Smartphone 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 56%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Portfolio | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 95%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| DDR5 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Hyperscaler | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inference | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| New York | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Taiwan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| ASML | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Research Lab | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Anthropic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 11%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
7 matches for “Shipment”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…2027, and we commented that we have more than 75% of our shipments committed for the year. That shows a strengthening demand and allows us…
…from the time they open, it takes a few quarters for meaningful shipments to come. So, that really gave us the combination of that demand…
…TAM outlook right now, but what we have said is that HBM shipments we expect to grow faster than conventional DRAM. That means that HBM…
…a few quarters after that. So I think those are all the reasons why we see that DRAM is reducing supply industry shipments next year.
…definitely think that our customers are choosing to maximize the compute silicon shipments they can make with the available memory supply that they have. That…
Where the listed words were said
…then, of course, as we also have now more SCA conversations with customers, including extension that we have now negotiated, that gives us more confidence…
…Good evening. I guess our first question, if you could address the CapEx and the fab construction CapEx, the construction CapEx as compared to the…
…A couple of follow-ups for me. You did highlight your NAND bit shipment in 2026 is tracking below industry average, but what should we expect…
Sure. Melissa, I'll take the first, then maybe Scott can take the HBM4E since he is driving that product development. In terms of the HBM…
I think definitely the realization that agentic workloads are executed across CPU has been a big driver. There is a large attach rate of both…
…follow-up question, I want to ask a question on the impact of CPU strength on both overall bit demand and your view of supply-demand balance.…
Then I can just add a little bit about the work with NVIDIA on what really will be the first major custom HBM product out…
On the first question, yes, our exposure to China has been reducing over the last couple of years and the last several quarters. We expect…
…that DRAM is the principal constraint versus logic or power to the data center. I mentioned there are many different software implementations for enterprise agentic…
…very focused on. With that wind at their back, we see the PC and mobile industry revenue to be growing, even though we do see…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/micron:2026-09-30:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=micron:2026-09-30:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP