Micron (MU): FY26 Q4 earnings call, Sep 30, 2026
On its Sep 30, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q4), Micron said 12 of the 26 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 24 of 26 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 24 of 26- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer 25+ times | Yes | 18 | 18 | ✗ | 66%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| CapEx | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shipment | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| HBM4E | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Agentic | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| GPU / CPU | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 73%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | 41%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Data Center 5+ times | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| PC | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Idaho | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 82%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Smartphone | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 75%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 20+ times | No | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Data Center 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Smartphone 3+ times | No | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 56%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Portfolio | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 95%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inventory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 70%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| DDR5 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Hyperscaler | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Inference | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| New York | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Taiwan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| ASML | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Research Lab | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Anthropic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 11%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
10 matches for “CapEx”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Good evening. I guess our first question, if you could address the CapEx and the fab construction CapEx, the construction CapEx as compared to the…
…to bring in tools for this year. But the increase in construction CapEx is obviously interesting because it doesn't result in bit production until at…
…you're right that we did comment that the majority of the construction CapEx increase for fiscal 2027 versus our prior plans is for cleanrooms that…
…make it clear, that the majority of the increases is for construction CapEx. Most of that construction increases to accelerate cleanroom space availability in 2028…
…SCAs are a good way for us to keep a pulse on the market and make sure that we get a return on that CapEx.
Where the listed words were said
…demand and allows us to shift our conversations on allocation with our customers out to 2028. So that's one element of our confidence is that…
…I guess that is a little surprising in the context of the CapEx, and I know you talked about some of the dampening effects of…
…from the time they open, it takes a few quarters for meaningful shipments to come. So, that really gave us the combination of that demand…
Sure. Melissa, I'll take the first, then maybe Scott can take the HBM4E since he is driving that product development. In terms of the HBM…
…grow into 2027, and of course, I think everybody's talking about how agentic AI is really growing fast, and that's creating a CPU-driven demand stream…
…follow-up question, I want to ask a question on the impact of CPU strength on both overall bit demand and your view of supply-demand balance.…
Then I can just add a little bit about the work with NVIDIA on what really will be the first major custom HBM product out…
On the first question, yes, our exposure to China has been reducing over the last couple of years and the last several quarters. We expect…
…that DRAM is the principal constraint versus logic or power to the data center. I mentioned there are many different software implementations for enterprise agentic…
…very focused on. With that wind at their back, we see the PC and mobile industry revenue to be growing, even though we do see…
…though we are going to be having first wafer output from our Idaho facility mid-calendar 2027, and others in the industry as well may be…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/micron:2026-09-30:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=micron:2026-09-30:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP